Before embarking on Fidesz’s reaction to Manfred Weber’s ultimatum, I would like to report on a domestic development: the willingness of opposition parties to collaborate to the fullest in preparation for the municipal elections in October.
Until recently, Fidesz, with the help of Miklós Molnár, representing the civic group Pro Savaria, held a slim majority on the Szombathely city council. In return, Molnár was named deputy mayor. Over the last four years, the ten-member opposition on the council had about as much influence as the opposition parties have in Orbán’s parliament. Two events, however, changed the balance of power in the city council. First, in October, at a snap election, a representative of “Long Live Szombathely” (supported by MSZP and DK) defeated the Fidesz candidate. Second, the relationship between Molnár and the Fidesz mayor soured; Molnár started voting with Fidesz’s enemies. The Fidesz group suddenly found itself in opposition.
So, there is a reasonable possibility of ousting the Fidesz mayor and gaining a solid majority on the city council in the forthcoming municipal election. MSZP, DK, and LMP have agreed on a common candidate, MSZP’s András Nemény. This collaboration is supported by Jobbik and the Two-tailed Dog Party.
Perhaps the most ideal local agreement was drawn up in Eger, where Ádám Mirkóczki, a former journalist and moderate Jobbik politician, was chosen as the common mayoral candidate of MSZP, Jobbik, DK, LMP, and Momentum. He is not a Jobbik candidate, and there will be no party logos behind his name come October. Instead, he will represent a new civic group, “In Collaboration for the City.” The opposition parties also agreed to cooperate in all voting districts, where the common candidates for the city council will run under the banner of “In Collaboration for the City.” Thus, in Eger all races will be between only two “parties.” An ideal strategy against the electoral system devised by Fidesz.
Mirkóczki’s chances of becoming mayor of Eger are quite good. Five years ago the Fidesz candidate won the mayoralty with 38% of the votes against Mirkóczki’s 26%, while the MSZP-DK candidate received 19% and the LMP candidate 4.4%. The district’s Fidesz member of parliament, Zsolt Nyitrai, is a singularly uninspiring fellow, who beat Mirkóczki in the 2018 national election by only 4,000 votes. Orbán, who had to go to Eger to campaign for him, publicly disgraced him by declaring that “it is easier to sell a washing machine than you.”
Ádám Mirkóczki, announcing his candidacy for the post of mayor of Eger.
The latest news is that, as in Eger, complete collaboration among the parties was achieved in Miskolc. All the opposition parties, from Jobbik to MSZP, DK, LMP, Párbeszéd, and Momentum, lined up behind a common candidate for mayor. As for the city council, the opposition parties will divide the voting districts among themselves, with only one opposition candidate facing each Fidesz candidate. The collaboration that materialized in Szombathely, Eger, and Miskolc is Fidesz’s worst nightmare.
Now, let’s see what’s going on in Fidesz circles after Manfred Weber’s three-point ultimatum to Viktor Orbán. The Hungarian prime minister ignored the call for a positive response to the conditions outlined by Weber. He entrusted his party’s answer to Balázs Hidvéghi, communications chief of Fidesz, who declared that the “defense of Christian values and the arrest of migration is more important than party discipline; we can’t yield on the issue.” Fair enough, but Fidesz will have to bear the consequences that result from this categorical refusal. Zsolt Bayer, one of the founders of Fidesz, is taking Fidesz’s departure from EPP as a done deal and considers it a bonus for Fidesz, which then “can unite with the Polish and Italian conservatives, Christians and real Europeans, and form a new party which soon enough will surpass the People’s Party, which has lost it soul.” He takes it for granted that Fidesz’s departure would be followed by a significant exodus by others.
Although Fidesz spokesmen deny that there has been any discussion with other “conservative” EP delegations, a member of the Europe of Nations and Freedom group claims that they are “having discussions with Orbán’s party.” That would entail a working relationship with Salvini’s League, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, and Heinz-Christian Strache’s far-right Freedom Party of Austria. We know that Orbán is a great admirer of both Salvini and Strache, and he has conducted one-on-one negotiations with both of them. Direct contact with Marine Le Pen is unlikely, at least at this stage in the game. I assume the discussions are occurring among MEPs on the spot in Brussels.
Meanwhile, the threat of expulsion, or the less onerous suspension, is growing. Weber went to Warsaw to attend an auxiliary EPP session, where he made it absolutely clear that the ball is now in Fidesz’s court. “Everything depends on the behavior of Budapest and Fidesz. They are the ones who must indicate whether they intend to remain in EPP.” The founders of EPP always stood for cooperation and compromise, and he doesn’t see any willingness to reach a compromise on the Hungarian side. It seems to me that EPP and Fidesz are on a collision course, with the likely result of a break.
Most Hungarian commentators don’t agree with this view. They are certain that the German members of EPP, on whom Fidesz’s fate depends, will refuse to take a firm stand on the issue. Their skepticism is based in part on the many “red lines” that EPP drew in the past and that were, in the final analysis, ignored by both Fidesz and EPP. They also have little trust in Manfred Weber personally, who has talked out of both sides of his mouth for a very long time. In addition, these commentators believe that getting rid of Fidesz before the elections would be suicidal for EPP. Others, however, argue that the Hungarian commentators are not familiar with the latest political developments in Germany and therefore misjudge the situation.
Paul Lendvai, the well-known Austrian expert on Hungarian affairs, in an interview with György Bolgár today, despite his skepticism about the Germans’ determination to expel Fidesz, admitted that the political mood in Germany is changing. He called attention to Ferenc Gyurcsány’s opinion piece that was published yesterday in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a conservative paper, which only a few months ago, he said, most likely wouldn’t have accepted an article by the former socialist Hungarian prime minister. The paper used to be an enthusiastic supporter of Fidesz and Viktor Orbán.
According to a German political scientist, it is to the benefit of the German Christian Democrats to rid themselves of Fidesz in exchange for support from the socialists, the liberals, and even the greens for Manfred Weber’s candidacy to become president of the European Commission. There is no question in my mind that risking these parties’ support for 12 or 13 cantankerous and troublesome Fidesz EPP members would be a dangerous calculus.
